The world has made significant progress in improving the health of mothers and children since 2000. The number of maternal deaths has fallen by more than one third, and the under-five mortality rate has been reduced by half. In 2000, there were 447,000 maternal deaths and 9.9 million deaths in children under five. By 2020, these numbers had fallen to 287,000 and 5 million, respectively. This progress was particularly evident during the MDG (Millennium Development Goals) era of 2000-2015.
However, since the start of the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) era in 2015, there has been a pronounced slowdown. The annual rate of reduction (ARR) of the global maternal mortality ratio plummeted from 2.7% between 2000 and 2015 to -0.04% between 2016 and 2020. Similarly, the ARR of the under-five mortality rate fell from 4.0% during the first decade (2000–2009) to 2.7% during the second decade (2010–2021). Meanwhile, the ARR of the neonatal mortality rate fell from 3.2% (2000–2009) to 2.2% (2010–2021). This slowdown is particularly pronounced in the neonatal mortality rate, which has fallen from 31 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 18 deaths per 1000 live births in 2021.
Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. In 2019, NCDs caused 41 million deaths, which is more than 3 of every 4 deaths. They also caused 63% of global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
The four major NCDs are cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes. These diseases collectively killed about 33.3 million people in 2019, which is a 28% increase compared to 2000.
The main reason for the increase in NCD deaths is the ageing and growth of the population. However, at an individual level, the risk of dying from NCDs has been declining globally overall. For example, a 30-year-old person in 2019 had a 17.8% chance of dying from one of the four major NCDs before they reach the age of 70. This is a 22% improvement globally in relative terms and represents progress in all regions since 2000. Although there has been some progress in addressing the risk factors for NCDs, such as tobacco use and hypertension, the age-standardized prevalence rates for many risk factors remain unacceptably high. For example, over 20% of adults smoke tobacco, and 33% of adults have hypertension.
In addition, almost the entire global population breathes unhealthy levels of air pollution. This is a major risk factor for NCDs, and it is estimated that 6.7 million deaths globally were attributed to the joint effects of ambient and household air pollution in 2019. There is an urgent need to take action to prevent and control NCDs. This can be done by focusing on lowering the associated risk factors, investing in better management of NCDs, and providing access to palliative care for people in need.
The average life expectancy has increased in the last 70 years. In 1950, the average person could expect to live only 46.5 years. By 2019, that number had increased to 73 years. This increase is due to a number of factors, including improved sanitation, nutrition, and access to healthcare.
The total number of annual deaths is projected to grow dramatically in the decades ahead. According to the United Nations, total global deaths will reach nearly 90 million in 2048. Of these deaths, 77 million will be NCD deaths, representing a 90% increase from 2019. The relative increase in NCD deaths between 2019 and 2048 will range from under 30% in the European Region to over 210% in the African Region. NCDs will take their greatest toll in the Western Pacific Region, where nearly 21 million NCD deaths are projected annually by 2048.
The increase in life expectancy is a remarkable achievement, but it is important to remember that not everyone has benefited equally from this progress. The burden of NCDs is disproportionately high in low- and middle-income countries. There are a number of things that can be done to prevent NCDs, such as eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, and not smoking. However, these interventions are often not available or affordable to people in low- and middle-income countries. The global mission to create longer healthier lives for all will require a concerted effort from governments, healthcare providers, and individuals to address the social and economic determinants of NCDs.
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