The Climate Crisis: Time is Running Out
30-Sep-2023
The 2022 Emissions Gap Report is a warning that the world is not doing enough to address the climate crisis. We need to take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a low-carbon economy. This will require broad-based transformations in all sectors, including electricity supply, industry, transport, buildings, food systems and the financial system.
The report finds that countries’ new and updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted since COP 26 are not enough to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 by the amount needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
If we don’t take any action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is projected to reach 2.8°C by the end of the century. The best-case scenario, if all countries meet their current climate commitments, is a warming of 2.4°C.
To meet the Paris Agreement goals, we need to reduce emissions by unprecedented levels over the next eight years. And we need to continue reducing emissions rapidly after 2030 to avoid exhausting the remaining carbon budget in the atmosphere.
The transformation towards zero greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors is underway, but it needs to move much faster:
- Electricity supply: The cost of renewable electricity has fallen dramatically in recent years, making it the most advanced sector in terms of decarbonization. However, there are still obstacles to overcome, such as ensuring a fair transition to renewable energy and providing universal energy access.
- Buildings: To reduce emissions from the buildings sector, we need to reduce excess floor space, reduce energy consumption for heating, lighting, and appliances, switch to renewable-powered grid electricity, and reduce emissions from building materials such as steel, cement, and concrete.
- Industry: The most important actions for the industry sector are to fully decarbonize processes by using electricity, green hydrogen, and carbon management for heat sources and feedstock, reduce waste, and increase the reuse and recycling of materials.
- Transportation: Critical transport actions include transitioning to zero-carbon vehicles, prioritizing sustainable and well-designed public transport networks, and promoting walking and cycling infrastructure.
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, we need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 45% within the next eight years. We need to continue reducing emissions rapidly after 2030 to avoid exhausting the remaining carbon budget in the atmosphere.
Current commitments by countries, as expressed in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are estimated to reduce global emissions by only 5-10% by 2030. To get on track for limiting global warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C, we need to reduce emissions by 30% or 45% respectively, compared to current policy projections.
Food systems currently account for one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions. If current practices remain in place, these emissions will almost double by 2050. However, there are things we can do to reduce food system emissions by two-thirds by 2050:
- Change our diets to include more variety and nutrition, and to reduce food waste.
- Protect natural ecosystems like forests and peatlands, which are often converted for agriculture.
- Improve food production at the farm level by using inputs more efficiently and reducing methane emissions from cattle.
- Decarbonize food supply chains by using clean transportation, renewable energy, locally sourced food, and less packaging.
Governments can support this transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy, and develop new foods with lower carbon footprints. Individual citizens can change their eating habits to be more environmentally sustainable.
A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least US$4-6 trillion a year. This is a significant amount of money, but it is essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Investments must move away from fossil fuels and practices that destroy nature. This means shifting our focus to renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable agriculture. It also means investing in public transportation, green infrastructure, and sustainable cities. Delivering such investment will require a complete rethink of financial systems, structures, and processes. We need to make it easier for businesses and individuals to invest in low-carbon projects.
There are six approaches to financial sector reform that can help us achieve this transformation:
- Make financial markets more efficient. This includes developing clear taxonomies and transparency standards for low-carbon investments. It also means making it easier for investors to find and invest in these opportunities.
- Introduce carbon pricing. This could involve putting a price on carbon emissions through a tax or cap-and-trade system. Carbon pricing would make fossil fuels more expensive and low-carbon alternatives more competitive.
- Nudge financial behavior. Governments can use public policy interventions, taxes, spending, and regulations to encourage more sustainable investment and consumption. For example, governments could provide subsidies for renewable energy projects or offer tax breaks for businesses that invest in energy efficiency.
- Create markets for low-carbon technology. We need to develop markets for new low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage and renewable energy storage. This could involve shifting financial flows, stimulating innovation, and helping to set standards.
- Mobilize central banks. Central banks can promote sustainable finance by incorporating climate risk into their decision-making and developing new financial instruments that support low-carbon investment.
- Set up climate “clubs” and other international initiatives. This would involve working with other countries to develop and implement common policies on sustainable finance. It would also include mobilizing cross-border finance and providing support for just transition partnerships.
We need to make big changes to our way of life in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. This will mean investing in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable agriculture. It will also mean creating new jobs and making sure that everyone has access to clean air and energy.
The war in Ukraine and the energy crisis are challenges, but they are also opportunities. We can use these crises to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
It is a big task, but it is essential to build a better future for everyone.
Source: United Nations Environment Programme
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